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Thursday Feb 25: Update

posted Feb 24, 2016, 5:44 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:12 PM by Jason Arnold ]
First, we are very unlikely to have daytime rain for the balance of the camp.  And precious little of the nighttime variety as well.  We will flirt with a 7:00 AM freeze Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Thursday:
  • Surface winds will be mid-teens gusting to mid-twenties.  NOAA says from the west, but as I said earlier,  Shiflet is very likely to see sheer, rotor sitting on or above the field, or both.  And, I suspect, an actual over-all easterly, gusty, turbulent flow at the surface.
  • The day promises 37 mph at mountain-top level from 290, and a small wind gradient through about 12,000.  Additionally, there is a broad temperature inversion from 9,000 through FL180.  That should give us a great bounce and a strong primary. 
  • Winds at 12,000 will be about 48 mph but jump to 107 mph by FL180.
  • I expect the above conditions to persist through the day, with mid-day thermal activity being too little to disrupt the wave formation significantly. 
  • The cautious aviator would expect both great wave activity and potentially dangerous conditions during take-off and landing.
Friday and Saturday both look like potential wave days.
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