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Sunday Dinner Report for Monday Feb 29

posted Feb 28, 2016, 3:02 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:07 PM by Jason Arnold ]
For your dining pleasure, consider that tomorrow offers lots of possibilities: and it's all in the timing.
  • An update will be necessary, probably around 10:00 PM this evening.
  • Sometime around 10:00 AM, the winds and temps aloft should support wave activity, but not any earlier than that.
  • Sometime around  2:00 PM, the wave will likely shut down, with tearing taking place somewhere between FL 180 and FL240 (likely the lower of the two, but who knows) and winds at 6,000 diminishing below the magic 25 mph.
  • The real fly in the ointment is that thermal activity will be pretty boisterous tomorrow and begin early, rocketing from about 1,200 AGL at 9:00 AM to 3,800 AGL sometime around the magic 10:00 AM, thus threatening any wave that could otherwise form.  
  • The thermals themselves will be quite difficult to work if the proposed 29 knot winds at mixing height actualize.
With this narrow a window for wave, and all this potential 'stuff' going on,  an update both tonight and then probably again in the AM will be necessary.  If you aren't confused by now, you should be!

The prudent aviator readies his craft and is prepared for a variety of pleasurable soaring activities.

Jason Arnold,
Feb 28, 2016, 3:02 PM