Archive‎ > ‎Camp Weather‎ > ‎

Bulletin: 2-24

posted Feb 24, 2016, 11:09 AM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:13 PM by Jason Arnold ]
Normally, I would give an update around 7:00 PM tonight, but Anne and I have a Lenten thing to go to.  So, I will here give what I think will happen tomorrow (Thursday, 25th) and then also post an update to that later this evening (around 9:30).

SO, as of now, knowledgeable meteorologists, good at tea-leaf reading (as well as tea-leaf smoking, I presume) have this to say for Thursday:
  • Probably no freezing, overnight low of 34 at 7:00 AM. 
  • Bright and sunny day, high of 46 at 3:00 PM
  • Surface winds W 7 mph with gusts to 22 mph in AM and 28 in PM (I take this with a grain of salt. Since Shiflet is in the lee of the mountain, surface winds are likely to come from the east or, just as likely, to shift back and forth). Be VERY careful about shear during landing if you do fly.  This could be the kind of day when the rotor sits over the field and causes havoc with close-to-the-ground aviation.  Not pretty.
  • 6,000 foot winds will be 290 at 43 mph with slightly increasing speeds through FL180
  • There is a temperature inversion forecast in the 12,000 foot range, probably good-enough to produce the desired bounce.  FL180 winds just 57 mph.  FL 240 winds 111 mph.
  • There is an indication of sheer around 12,000.  There is some indication that sheer there will diminish in the late afternoon.
So, there should be wave tomorrow.  Thermal activity in the mid-day (3,800MSL thermal tops) should not be strong enough to disrupt the primary wave.  Some scattered snow showers may be encountered. Late-day wave looks just as likely as early AM.  The concerns about low-level shear must be further-evaluated.