Archive >
Camp Weather
Dinner Report For Wednesday AM
I'll keep it short: Likely wave tomorrow. Winds at 6,000 from 310 at 33 mph. Temperature inversion around 9,000. Only caveat is that even though there is a good gradient in the upper level winds forecast, there is also a slight swing in the winds at increasing altitudes such that winds at FL180 will be 300 and at FL240 they will be 290. That said, the transitions should be smooth and the the wave may well go on up there anyway. Early to rise, tomorrow!!! Surface winds 10 gusting to 20 from the NW. Gusts will diminish in the afternoon. I'll text Jason if anything changes between now and in the morning. |
Tuesday March 1
With winds looking more and more to be 230, I just can't see how we could have wave in the forecast. Winds at surface will be 10 from the south. 39 from 230 at mountain top. Tuesday rain should hold off until about 5:00 PM, but clouds will invade, being 50% by 10:00 AM and 90% by 2:00 PM. Thanks for listening! |
Monday Dinnertime Preview
Hopefully, tomorrow's rain will stay on schedule and arrive after soaring operations. As of this moment, winds aloft tomorrow are strong enough, but coming from 230 from one source and 270 from another, I don't know what to say right now. Also, there is no temperature inversion in either forecast. So, right now, the last day of camp does not look like wave, but I will know more later tonight. Enjoy your supper, and look for an update around 10:00. |
Monday Feb 29
Monday will be interesting. With all of the elements previously noted still in play and essentially unchanged, I think Monday will present a variety of possibilities...and only one way to know for certain. I'll text Jason in the AM if there are changes that bring any certainty to Monday's picture. Enjoy! |
Sunday Dinner Report for Monday Feb 29
For your dining pleasure, consider that tomorrow offers lots of possibilities: and it's all in the timing.
With this narrow a window for wave, and all this potential 'stuff' going on, an update both tonight and then probably again in the AM will be necessary. If you aren't confused by now, you should be! The prudent aviator readies his craft and is prepared for a variety of pleasurable soaring activities. |
Sunday Update
Winds appear too weak and gradient-free to support any wave on Sunday. Also, there is no inversion. That said, a combination of ridge and thermal could provide an interesting afternoon. |
Sunday Feb 28
One model supports a very slight chance of wave tomorrow. One model says sleep late and enjoy the blue thermals and afternoon scenery.
I'll post my 'final answer' about wave around 10:00 PM Saturday night. |
Sunday Thermal Point Forecast-AGL
This forecast is for the immediate area around Shiflet only and assumes you are flying over terrain that is at field elevation. I'd put in more caveats, but life is too short. |
Saturday Update
|
Saturday Feb 27 Preview
This is a preview because again, I will be out of town this evening. Update will occur around 11:00 PM. Also, I'll text Jason in the morning if I see anything interesting to add. This morning I was able to relay to Jason that there was a +5 temp change between 6,000 and 9,000. A real inversion! Today's lesson: Wind above 25 mph at 6,000 +320+wind gradient+large inversion between 6,000 and 9,000= lennies! For Saturday:
But seriously: Early Saturday flights may well reveal how important the strength of the inversion is to the creation of a strong Shiflet Wave. Please go investigate safely and post your flight and comments on OLC. |
1-10 of 32