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Camp Weather

Each evening of the camp around 7:00 PM, this page will include a next-day 7:00 AM wave forecast & when appropriate, a thermal forecast.  If there is a ‘positive’ outlook for the next morning, I will post an update that will include actual winds and temps at 6,000ft. - Jay

Dinner Report For Wednesday AM

posted Mar 1, 2016, 3:10 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:06 PM by Jason Arnold ]

I'll keep it short:

Likely wave tomorrow.  Winds at 6,000 from 310 at 33 mph.  Temperature inversion around 9,000.  Only caveat is that even though there is a good gradient in the upper level winds forecast, there is also a slight swing in the winds at increasing altitudes such that winds at FL180 will be 300 and at FL240 they will be 290.  That said, the transitions should be smooth and the the wave may well go on up there anyway.

Early to rise, tomorrow!!!

Surface winds 10 gusting to 20 from the NW.  Gusts will diminish in the afternoon.

I'll text Jason if anything changes between now and in the morning.

Tuesday March 1

posted Feb 29, 2016, 5:16 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:06 PM by Jason Arnold ]

With winds looking more and more to be 230, I just can't see how we could have wave in the forecast.  Winds at surface will be 10 from the south.  39 from 230 at mountain top.

Tuesday rain should hold off until about 5:00 PM, but clouds will invade, being 50% by 10:00 AM and 90% by 2:00 PM.

Thanks for listening!

Monday Dinnertime Preview

posted Feb 29, 2016, 2:41 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:07 PM by Jason Arnold ]

Hopefully, tomorrow's rain will stay on schedule and arrive after soaring operations.  As of this moment, winds aloft tomorrow are strong enough, but coming from 230 from one source and 270 from another, I don't know what to say right now.

Also, there is no temperature inversion in either forecast.

So, right now, the last day of camp does not look like wave, but I will know more later tonight.  Enjoy your supper, and look for an update around 10:00.

Monday Feb 29

posted Feb 28, 2016, 5:53 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:07 PM by Jason Arnold ]

Monday will be interesting.  With all of the elements previously noted still in play and essentially unchanged, I think Monday will present a variety of possibilities...and only one way to know for certain.

I'll text Jason in the AM if there are changes that bring any certainty to Monday's picture.

Enjoy!

Sunday Dinner Report for Monday Feb 29

posted Feb 28, 2016, 3:02 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:07 PM by Jason Arnold ]

For your dining pleasure, consider that tomorrow offers lots of possibilities: and it's all in the timing.
  • An update will be necessary, probably around 10:00 PM this evening.
  • Sometime around 10:00 AM, the winds and temps aloft should support wave activity, but not any earlier than that.
  • Sometime around  2:00 PM, the wave will likely shut down, with tearing taking place somewhere between FL 180 and FL240 (likely the lower of the two, but who knows) and winds at 6,000 diminishing below the magic 25 mph.
  • The real fly in the ointment is that thermal activity will be pretty boisterous tomorrow and begin early, rocketing from about 1,200 AGL at 9:00 AM to 3,800 AGL sometime around the magic 10:00 AM, thus threatening any wave that could otherwise form.  
  • The thermals themselves will be quite difficult to work if the proposed 29 knot winds at mixing height actualize.
With this narrow a window for wave, and all this potential 'stuff' going on,  an update both tonight and then probably again in the AM will be necessary.  If you aren't confused by now, you should be!

The prudent aviator readies his craft and is prepared for a variety of pleasurable soaring activities.


Sunday Update

posted Feb 27, 2016, 7:04 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:08 PM by Jason Arnold ]

Winds appear too weak and gradient-free to support any wave on Sunday.  Also, there is no inversion.  

That said, a combination of ridge and thermal could provide an interesting afternoon.

Sunday Feb 28

posted Feb 27, 2016, 3:53 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:09 PM by Jason Arnold ]

One model supports a very slight chance of wave tomorrow.  One model says sleep late and enjoy the blue thermals and afternoon scenery.
  • Surface winds will be very gentle all day.  In the AM WSW shifting to S by 1:00PM.
  • Winds at thermal tops will rise to the mid-teens from WSW, which may disrupt some sight-seeing plans.
  • With a high of 60 at noon and 65 later on, you should be able to fly without your fleece and mukluks for a change.
I'll post my 'final answer' about wave around 10:00 PM Saturday night.

Sunday Thermal Point Forecast-AGL

posted Feb 27, 2016, 3:03 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:09 PM by Jason Arnold ]

This forecast is for the immediate area around Shiflet only and assumes you are flying over terrain that is at field elevation.  I'd put in more caveats, but life is too short.

Saturday Update

posted Feb 26, 2016, 8:01 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:10 PM by Jason Arnold ]

  • Winds at 6,000 will be above 25 mph until about 4:00 PM when they fall below the threshold for good wave generation.
  • Direction will be 300-310 through12,000.  Between 12,000 and F180, they will shift to 330-340.  This may tear the wave by FL180 or so.  
  • Friday's +5 F inversion at 9,000 will be replaced by a considerably less robust inversion, but at the same altitude.
  • I still anticipate thermal activity in the afternoon.
  • I'll text Jason in the morning if anything above changes significantly by then.

Saturday Feb 27 Preview

posted Feb 26, 2016, 1:11 PM by Jay Campbell   [ updated Jan 8, 2017, 1:10 PM by Jason Arnold ]

This is a preview because again, I will be out of town this evening.  Update will occur around 11:00 PM.  Also, I'll text Jason in the morning if I see anything interesting to add.  This morning I was able to relay to Jason that there was a +5 temp change between 6,000 and 9,000.  A real inversion!

Today's lesson: Wind above 25 mph at 6,000 +320+wind gradient+large inversion between 6,000 and 9,000= lennies! 

 For Saturday:
  • Again, I would expect frost conditions to subside between 8:00 and 9:00 AM
  • Early cloud cover may be about 50%, but by 9:00 should be only ~30% or less
  • Winds at 6,000 should be about 32 mph at 310
  • There will be a smooth, easy wind gradient with winds at FL240 of just 55 mph
  • There will be a slight temperature inversion in the 12-15,000 range
  • Thermal activity will begin in the late morning and will probably be disruptive of  low-down wave by about noon.  Get out early for wave or later for circling.  Your choice.
  • Thermal activity to 4-5,000 AGL in the afternoon may provide lots of opportunities to investigate the scenery around Marion.
  • Surface winds should be light all day, with no gusts to worry about from NW or WNW
But seriously: Early Saturday flights may well reveal how important the strength of the inversion is to the creation of a strong Shiflet Wave.  Please go investigate safely and post your flight and comments on OLC.

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